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Probable 소개
Probable is an on-chain prediction market built on BNB Chain. Each market poses a question about a future event, and the answer is split into Yes and No shares. Share prices float between 0.01 and 0.99 dollars, directly reflecting the market's estimate of the probability of that outcome; after the event resolves, shares in the correct outcome settle at one dollar while the others go to zero.
For matching, it uses an order book rather than an automated market maker, so prices form when traders holding opposite views trade directly with each other, and users can buy or sell at any time before settlement to lock in gains. Trades are denominated in USDT, the platform sponsors gas for user trades, and only deposits and withdrawals carry gas costs borne by the user. Market outcomes are determined by the UMA oracle. Markets span sports, politics, economics, and crypto assets, and users can also propose new markets themselves.
Probable launched its Points Program on January 12, 2026, initially invite-only, with the platform running zero fees. By mid-January 2026 it had accumulated roughly $560 million in nominal volume and $380 million in prediction volume, 12,389 total users and 834,357 total trades, with daily active users above 4,000 on both Jan 14 and Jan 15.
As of September 2026 Probable had still not issued a token, remaining in a pre-token points and growth phase.
Probable's token is widely expected to launch via PancakeSwap's CAKE.PAD and potentially list on Binance, and the official roadmap also plans permissionless market creation; the token issuance timeline has not been officially confirmed (rumor).